HISTORIC EVENTS PROMPT
I think these two major historical events that impacted the
economy are key roles. Both have happened during my lifetime. We see oil prices
changing daily and house market crashing. In this post, I write briefly about
why I picked these two specific events, and why I believe it impacted the
economy.
OIL PRICES: Over the years, oil prices have fluctuated. The last two major oil price declines were driven by central bank policy
errors – monetary contractions that led to global economic recessions. During an economic recession, the world economic activity
contracts and demand for oil declines. When demand for any commodity contracts,
prices decline. The current oil price decline is not accompanied by an economic
growth contraction. It’s the first of this type of decline the world has seen
in many decades. The current oil price decline isn’t being
driven by a decline in demand; instead it’s being driven by an increase in
supply.
HOUSE MARKET CRASH: House market crash has been
like a roller coaster ride. It has its up and down moments. While stocks typically have a price-to-earnings ratio of 15,
they now sit at a ratio closer to 23. At the peak
before the crash, the median sale price for a home in the U.S. was $200,000. By
the time the market reached bottom, prices had dropped 29%, to $140,000. While
today’s national median sale price has rebounded to $185,000, it’s still about
7.5% lower than the pre-crash high.